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Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc. (PLYM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 core results were stable but slightly below Street FFO/share: Core FFO was $0.44 vs S&P Global consensus FFO/share of $0.461, while AFFO was $0.41; management attributed pressure to the Chicago JV deconsolidation, higher G&A seasonality, and winter Opex . S&P Global consensus figures marked with asterisks; see Estimates Context for details.*
  • Operational momentum accelerated: record 2.44M sf of commenced leasing with blended cash spread +9.6% (ex-St. Louis +16.2%); portfolio occupancy rose to 94.3% and same‑store NOI (cash) grew 2.0% YoY despite higher snow removal costs .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity intact: 88.1% fixed-rate debt, no 2025 maturities, $415.5M revolver availability, net debt/Adj. EBITDA 5.9x; Board authorized a $90M share repurchase program (no repurchases in Q1) .
  • Strategy/guidance: $65.1M of Q1 acquisitions at 6.8% initial NOI yields and ~+$205M under agreement; FY25 Core FFO $1.85–$1.89 per share AFFIRMED with SS NOI (cash) +6.0–6.5% and average SS occupancy 95–97% .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record leasing volume and solid pricing: 2.44M sf commenced; blended cash rent +9.6% (ex‑St. Louis +16.2%); renewals +15.0% cash spread; St. Louis short‑term deal lifted occupancy and provided optionality .
  • Accretive external growth and pipeline: closed $65.1M of assets at 6.8% initial NOI yields; 2M sf ($205M) under agreement at 6.5–6.75% targeted yields; “well positioned…with ample strategic capital” (CEO) .
  • Financial flexibility intact: 88.1% fixed debt, no 2025 maturities, $415.5M liquidity; “operate in the 6x range” leverage and affirmed FY25 Core FFO outlook .

Quoted management:

  • “We had a good start to 2025, with robust leasing activity... and the successful acquisition of $65 million of functional, infill Class B industrial assets…” — Jeff Witherell, CEO .
  • “As of today, we have approximately $205 million of acquisitions under agreement… at a targeted initial NOI yield of 6.5% to 6.75%.” — Management on the call .
  • “We continue to have strong liquidity… with $415 million of availability [and] have affirmed our previously issued full year 2025 guidance for core FFO.” — Management .

What Went Wrong

  • Slight FFO/share shortfall vs Street and y/y drift: Core FFO/share $0.44 vs $0.45 last year; AFFO/share $0.41 vs $0.45 last year; Street FFO/share consensus $0.461 (company reports Core FFO; basis may differ) .*
  • New‑lease pricing mixed due to St. Louis: new leases +0.9% cash (would have been +22.1% ex‑St. Louis); blended +9.6% (would have been +16.2% ex‑St. Louis) .
  • Operating expense headwinds and SS occupancy drag: Q1 SS NOI (cash) growth +2.0% YoY was tempered by a 290 bps occupancy decline and elevated snow removal/utilities; management flagged higher Q2 G&A before normalizing in 2H .

Financial Results

Reported financials and operating KPIs (chronological, Q3’24 → Q1’25):

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenues ($)$51.871M $47.570M $45.571M
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$(0.35) $3.24 $0.13
Core FFO / Share$0.44 $0.46 $0.44
AFFO / Share$0.40 $0.40 $0.41
Same‑Store NOI YoY (Cash)+0.6% −0.5% +2.0%
Portfolio Occupancy94.2% 92.5% 94.3%
Same‑Store Occupancy94.2% 92.2% 94.7%
Leasing Commenced (sf)1,095,115 1,532,105 2,437,267
Cash Rent Spreads – Renewals+9.1% +12.6% +15.0%
Cash Rent Spreads – New+15.7% +30.2% +0.9% (ex‑STL +22.1%)
Blended Cash Rent Spread+12.2% +19.4% +9.6% (ex‑STL +16.2%)

KPIs and capital allocation (Q1 2025):

  • SS NOI (GAAP) +1.1% YoY; SS NOI (cash) +2.0% YoY .
  • Dividend paid: $0.24 per share (Q1) .
  • Q1 acquisitions: $65.1M, 6.8% initial NOI yield; 801k sf; 100% leased; WALT 4.4 years .
  • Liquidity: ~$8.0M cash (ex‑escrows) and $415.5M revolver availability as of 4/29/25 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (2/26/25)Current Guidance (5/1/25)Change
Core FFO / ShareFY 2025$1.85–$1.89 $1.85–$1.89 Maintained
SS NOI Growth (Cash)FY 20256.0%–6.5% 6.0%–6.5% Maintained
Avg SS OccupancyFY 202595%–97% 95%–97% Maintained
Acquisition VolumeFY 2025$270M–$450M $270M–$450M Maintained
Net Interest ExpenseFY 2025$32.0M–$36.5M $32.0M–$36.5M Maintained
G&A ExpenseFY 2025$16.45M–$15.85M $16.45M–$15.85M Maintained
Wtd Avg Shares+UnitsFY 202546.051M 46.051M Maintained

Reconciliation updates (FY25 framework):

  • Prior (2/26): Net loss ($0.26) to ($0.23); D&A +$1.66–$1.67; Series C preferred (−$0.19); Proportionate JV Core FFO +$0.64 .
  • Current (5/1): Net loss ($0.26); D&A +$1.87–$1.91; Gain on financing (−$0.31); Series C preferred (−$0.17); Proportionate JV Core FFO +$0.73 .

Dividend policy: Common dividend of $0.24 paid for Q1; no change to stated dividend run‑rate .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Leasing/OccupancyQ3: SS NOI cash +0.6%, occupancy 94.2%; Q4: SS NOI cash −0.5%, occupancy 92.5% with Cleveland drag Record 2.44M sf; SS NOI cash +2.0% YoY; occupancy 94.3%; SS occupancy 94.7% Improving through 2025 as large spaces stabilize
St. Louis assetQ3: Vacancy disclosed; Q4: 2‑yr lease signed (600k/450k) starting Jan 15, 2025 Confirmed in SS pool; renewal of 624k sf “any day” for 3 years; added 169.5k sf temp space Stabilizing; near‑term occupancy tailwind
AcquisitionsQ3: $100.5M Memphis; Q4: upsized revolver; set up JV capital $65.1M closed at 6.8%; ~$205M under agreement at 6.5–6.75% Active, focused on infill Class B
Tariffs/OnshoringLimited commentary priorMonitoring; some short‑term space demand; long‑term constructive for Class B; cited investment momentum in “Golden Triangle” states Neutral near term; long‑term positive
Balance SheetQ4: $600M amended facility; Chicago JV deconsolidation 88.1% fixed; no 2025 maturities; $415.5M availability; net debt/Adj. EBITDA 5.9x Strong flexibility maintained
BuybackNot highlighted prior$90M authorization; none repurchased in Q1; “balanced” approach vs acquisitions Optionality; deployment TBD
Credit/CollectionsQ4: Cleveland bankruptcies impacted bad debt Watch list 5 tenants, <1% ABR; embedded bad debt 35 bps; no Q1 usage; normalized run-rate ~10–20 bps ex‑Cleveland Improving vs 2024 anomaly

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and outlook: “We continue to be well positioned to scale our platform with ample strategic capital… nearly 30% of annual rents rolling in 2025 and 2026… We see a path for sustained internal growth and long‑term value creation.” — CEO, prepared remarks .
  • External growth: “As of today, we have approximately $205 million of acquisitions under agreement… at a targeted initial NOI yield of 6.5% to 6.75%.” — Management .
  • Operating cadence: “We anticipated a bit of a muted start… with a stronger second half driven by the stabilization of transitory vacancies in Cleveland and St. Louis and the full contribution from acquisitions expected to close in the second and third quarters.” — Management .
  • Macro/tenants: “We have observed an increase in short‑term space requirements… driven by tenants responding to inventory adjustments and shifting trade flows.” — Prepared commentary .

Q&A Highlights

  • Large‑box execution: St. Louis 624k sf renewal “being signed right now” for three years; Columbus ODW backfill 280–400k sf (265k out for signature), minimal downtime via demising/fencing .
  • 2H acceleration drivers: SS occupancy ramp from 92.2% in Q4’24 to ~97.3% YE’25; only ~25 bps of YE occupancy tied to short‑term temp fill .
  • Capital deployment: ~$79M Series C preferred draw in May; incremental interest vs LOC (~125 bps) acknowledged; acquisitions remain priority with balanced buyback optionality .
  • Credit/watch list: 5 tenants, <1% ABR; embedded bad debt 35 bps for 2025 guidance; none used in Q1 .
  • Development: selective; 42k sf Jacksonville spec at >8% target yield; otherwise BTS‑led (Cincinnati, Memphis) .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus (per-share and revenue):

  • Core FFO/share reported: $0.44 vs S&P “FFO / Share (REIT) Consensus Mean” $0.461 → slight miss; note basis difference (Core FFO vs FFO/REIT) .*
  • EPS (GAAP): Company reported diluted EPS $0.13; S&P “Primary EPS Consensus Mean” −$0.101 estimate and S&P “Primary EPS actual” +$0.034 (methodological basis differs from company’s reported diluted EPS) .*
  • Revenue: Company reported total revenues $45.571M; S&P “Revenue Consensus Mean” $47.688M and S&P “Revenue actual” $37.523M reflect a different revenue basis than Plymouth’s total revenues .*
MetricQ1 2025
FFO / Share (REIT) Consensus Mean0.4611*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean−0.1008*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($)47,688,250*
S&P Primary EPS Actual0.0337*
S&P Revenue Actual ($)37,523,000*

Notes: Asterisked values are from S&P Global consensus/actual feeds. Values retrieved from S&P Global. Company-reported comparables for Q1 2025: Core FFO/share $0.44 ; diluted EPS $0.13 ; total revenues $45.571M .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Fundamental stabilization is underway: record leasing, rising occupancy, and SS NOI growth despite winter cost headwinds signal improving internal growth setup into 2H25 .
  • Slight FFO/share shortfall vs Street this quarter, but FY guide affirmed; 2H drivers (St. Louis, Cleveland, Indy, Cincinnati) should aid trajectory if execution continues .*
  • External growth remains accretive with ~$205M pipeline at mid‑6% yields; ample liquidity and fixed‑rate profile reduce financing risk as capital is deployed .
  • Watch list/bad debt risks look contained relative to 2024’s Cleveland anomaly; embedded guide reserve (35 bps) provides cushion .
  • Valuation sensitivity to execution on large‑box backfills: near‑term lease signings (St. Louis renewal, Columbus backfill) are key catalysts for sentiment and estimate revisions .
  • Buyback creates optionality if dislocation persists; management currently prioritizes platform expansion while keeping balance sheet neutral .
  • Dividend appears supported by AFFO trajectory ($0.41/share in Q1; $0.24/share dividend), with improving occupancy and acquisitions as tailwinds .

Appendix: Additional detail and disclosures

  • Non‑GAAP definitions and reconciliations for NOI, EBITDAre, Core FFO, and AFFO are provided in the Q1 press release and supplemental .
  • Capital structure snapshot: 75.3% unsecured debt; total debt $771.1M; net debt/annualized Adj. EBITDA 5.9x (quarter annualized) .

All company figures and quotes are sourced from Plymouth’s Q1 2025 8‑K press release, supplemental, prepared commentary, and earnings call as cited. Asterisked estimate figures are from S&P Global consensus feeds as noted above.